False Alarm: Earth Will Not Be Destroyed in 2032 After All

Via benmoss

To be read in Professor Farnsworth's voice: Good news, everyone! Looks like we're not going to die in a fiery asteroid-induced apocalypse after all!

After about a week of doomsday headlines warning that a newly discovered asteroid—2024 YR4—was coming to end us all, we can finally put down our panic signs. Scientists have now updated their calculations, and as it turns out... we're safe. Probably. Almost definitely. Let's say 99.995% safe.

What Happened?

Back in December 2024, astronomers spotted asteroid 2024 YR4 cruising through space, and early calculations gave it a 1 in 32 chance of slamming into Earth in 2032. That's not exactly great odds. In fact, it was enough to land the asteroid on NASA's Sentry Risk Table and push it to a Level 3 on the Torino Scale—a system that rates potential asteroid threats. For context, Level 3 means "close encounter, worth monitoring" but not quite "Hollywood disaster movie" yet.

Then, as more data rolled in, the picture changed dramatically. First for the worse, Increasing the chances of it hitting, but then, On February 23, astronomers recalculated the asteroid's trajectory and downgraded the risk to a near-zero chance of impact. To be precise, the new probability of collision is 1 in 20,000—which means you have a better chance of getting struck by lightning multiple times than seeing 2024 YR4 ruin your day.

Why the Sudden Change?

Via NASA JPL/CNEOS

If you're wondering why scientists first told us we might die and then backpedaled, here's the explanation: predicting asteroid paths is tricky. At first, telescopes only capture a limited number of images, making the orbit calculations fuzzy at best. As astronomers collect more observations, they refine their models and adjust predictions accordingly. It's a bit like trying to predict where a football will land after it's been kicked—except the ball is millions of miles away, and the kicker is the universe itself.

Or, as asteroid tracker David Rankin put it, imagine holding a stick that's millions of miles long. Move it even a fraction of an inch, and the other end shifts dramatically. That's why these early impact odds often look terrifying before dropping to almost nothing.

So… Are We Ever in Danger?

While 2024 YR4 will safely pass by Earth in both 2028 and 2032, scientists see this as an opportunity rather than a threat. The asteroid will swing by closer than the Moon in 2032, giving astronomers a rare chance to study it up close—without the whole "extinction-level event" part.

So, while the internet loves a good doomsday scenario, you can go ahead and cancel your 2032 end-of-the-world party. The apocalypse is postponed—again.