Star Power Used To Mean Something
There was a time when casting certain actors guaranteed box office success. Tom Cruise. Will Smith. Julia Roberts. Sandra Bullock. Denzel Washington. Their names on a poster meant automatic ticket sales.
Studios structured entire business models around this. Pay the star $20 million. Market their face everywhere. Watch audiences show up opening weekend regardless of reviews or subject matter.
The Rock was the last vestige of this system. He could open anything. Action movies. Family films. Video game adaptations. Didn't matter. His presence meant guaranteed box office.
Until it didn't.
What Actually Drives Box Office Now
Black Phone 2's success tells us what actually matters in 2025: franchise recognition, genre loyalty, and genuine audience interest in the story.
The Black Phone isn't a star-driven franchise. Ethan Hawke is in it, but he's not opening the movie. Madeleine McGraw is talented but not a household name. This is a Blumhouse horror sequel that succeeded because The first film built genuine goodwill, Horror audiences show up for horror they want to see, and The marketing sold the story, not the stars.
None of that has anything to do with star power. It's about IP, genre, and execution.
Good Fortune Had Everything (Except An Audience)
Let's look at Good Fortune's failure more closely. This movie had:
- Keanu Reeves (beloved, bankable, coming off John Wick success)
- Seth Rogen (comedy star, producer with serious clout)
- Keke Palmer (rising star, Emmy winner)
- Aziz Ansari (Master of None, stand-up success)
That's a legitimately impressive cast. Any of those names used to be able to open a comedy. Combined? Should have been a sure thing.
$6.2 million opening.
The problem wasn't the stars. The problem was nobody cared about the movie itself. An angel comedy in 2025? That's a tough sell regardless of who's in it. And no amount of star power could overcome fundamental lack of interest in the premise.
The Rock's Reality Check
The Smashing Machine bombing is even more significant because it's Dwayne Johnson - literally the last true movie star who could open anything.
Yes, it's a serious drama. Yes, it's a departure from his brand. Yes, the marketing was challenging. But if star power still mattered, Johnson's name alone should have driven at least $15-20 million opening weekend out of curiosity.
Instead: $6 million.
His fans didn't show up because they wanted The Rock, not Dwayne Johnson playing a troubled MMA fighter. His star power is tied explicitly to a specific type of movie. Outside that lane, he's just another actor in a movie nobody asked for.
That's not a knock on him or the performance (which is apparently phenomenal). It's just reality: star power is conditional now, not universal.
Why This Happened
Several factors killed traditional star power:
Streaming changed everything. Audiences got used to waiting. Why pay $15+ per ticket when you can wait a month and watch it at home?
Social media democratized fame. Stars aren't special anymore. We see them constantly on Instagram, Twitter, TikTok. The mystique is gone.
IP became king. People want to see Spider-Man, not Tom Holland. They want to see Batman, not Robert Pattinson. The character matters more than the actor.
Quality became paramount. Reviews, word of mouth, and social media reactions spread instantly. A bad movie with a big star gets exposed immediately. There's no hiding behind opening weekend anymore.
Younger audiences don't care about stars. Gen Z doesn't have the same attachment to movie stars that previous generations did. They have YouTubers, TikTokers, and streamers they care more about than traditional celebrities.
What This Means For Future Hollywood
Studios can't rely on star salaries to guarantee box office anymore. That business model is broken.
Instead, they need Strong IP that audiences actually want to see, Compelling stories that generate genuine interest, Smart marketing that sells the movie, not just the star, and Quality execution that earns good word of mouth.
Black Phone 2 had all of those things. Good Fortune and The Smashing Machine didn't.
It's that simple.
The Exception That Proves The Rule
Tom Cruise might be the only exception - Top Gun: Maverick and Mission: Impossible still perform based partially on his presence. But even Cruise works because he's tied to specific franchises audiences love. He's not opening original dramas either.
And notably, even Cruise couldn't save The Mummy. Star power only works when everything else aligns.
So What Now
This weekend's box office wasn't an anomaly. It's confirmation of what's been happening gradually for years.
Star power is dead. IP power, story power, and execution power are what matter now.
Keanu Reeves and Seth Rogen couldn't save Good Fortune. The Rock couldn't save The Smashing Machine. But a horror sequel with no major stars opened at #1 because audiences wanted to see THAT MOVIE, not those actors.
Hollywood needs to stop paying $20 million star salaries expecting guaranteed returns. That era is over.
The stars don't bring audiences anymore. The movies do.
And the sooner studios accept that reality, the better their box office will be.