Twitter Thread: Computational/System Biologist Shares Thoughts On COVID-19

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mattstaff
Mar 16, 2020 10:00 AM EDT

Twitter user @BallouxFrancois works as a computational/system biologist, who additionally spent 5 years modeling world class pandemic responses. He proceeds to break down all the things that he (doesn't) know. Just a little bit terrifying. 

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    Text - Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois I should be qualified to comment on the covid-19 pandemic. I'm a computational/system biologist working on infectious diseases and have spent five years in a world class 'pandemic response modelling' unit. In this thread, I will summarise what I believe I (don't) know. (1/12) 10:39 PM - Mar 14, 2020 · Twitter Web App 19.4K Retweets 46.3K Likes Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois · Mar 14 Replying to @BallouxFrancois After having spent considerable time thin
    via @BallouxFrancois
  • 02
    Text - Pandemic Waves (1918-1919) 30 25 20 15 + 10 + HI++++++H+++|| H++++++ 6/29 7/27 8/24 9/ 21 10/19 11/16 12/14 1/11 2/8 3/8 4/5 1918 1919 Source: CDC Emerging Infectious Diseases Vol. 1 2, No. 1, Janu ary 2006 Link: http://wwv.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol1 2no01/05-0979.htm Deaths per 1,000 persons
    via @BallouxFrancois
  • 03
    Text - Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois · Mar 14 Predictions from any model are only as good as the data that parametrised it. There are two major unknowns at this stage. (1) We don't know to what extent covid-19 transmission will be seasonal. (2) We don't know if covid-19 infection induces long-lasting immunity. (5/12) O 37 t7 1K 5.1K Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois · Mar 14 Seasonality is difficult to predict without time-series. Comparison between regions for the covid-19 pandemic suggests
    via @BallouxFrancois
  • 04
    Text - Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois · Mar 14 The covid-19 pandemic is not just an epidemiological problem. It is a 'Global Health' problem, that can only be tackled with an integrated and global approach. For example, there is no such thing as a choice between managing the pandemic vs. protecting the economy. (11/12) 35 17 1.9K 6.7K Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois · Mar 14 Health and the economy are closely linked. The correlation between per- capita GDP and health (life expectancy) is es
    via @BallouxFrancois
  • 05
    Text - (a) (b) 4. 50 60 70 80 90 50 U5MR (per 1000 live births) 100 150 Life Expectancy (in years) LogGDP 12 12 da9607
    via @BallouxFrancois

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