Man Reflects on Andrej Karpathy's Predictions About How Knowing How to Use AI Will Divide Society: ‘Give it 5 years. How many of those 80% will still be congratulating themselves for being too wise and righteous to use AI?’

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  • AI Zach Malinowitz
    via Zach M
  • By the Time Everyone Catches Up, It Will Already Be Too Late

    According to Andrej Karpathy's recent approximations: 80% have no access to Al, no interest in it, or actively spurn it. 20% casually only see
  • free-tier derpy chatbots as a better Google search or writing aid. Just 0.2% have seen agents complete complex projects with a prompt that used to take weeks or months.
    via bigdickzillionaire
  • And somehow, people who know the least about Al are the most certain about what it can't do. "It's just autocomplete bro." "It can't tell the truth."
    via bigdickzillionaire
  • "Everything it makes is slop." Guess you tried ChatGPT in 2023 and apparently learned everything you'll ever need to know. We've all heard about the
    via bigdickzillionaire
  • technological divide. My grandmother never touched a computer. Anything beyond calls and texts on her smartphone meant another call about how "the d in thing is broken again."
    via bigdickzillionaire
  • But she got along just fine. Worked until retirement. Lived independently until hospice. She could ignore the computer revolution because it unfolded over decades. She was fine. We don't have decades.
    via bigdickzillionaire
  • Give it 5 years. With recursive self- improvement, even that may be generous. How many of that 80% will still be congratulating themselves for being too wise and righteous to use
    via bigdickzillionaire
  • AI? Sure, someone starting in 2028 will have access to vastly more capable systems than we have today.
    via bigdickzillionaire
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  • But access to the technology isn't access to the opportunities it created. Markets captured. Industries restructured. Economic advantages consolidated. None of that
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  • resets when you finally catch up. And being an Al power user doesn't guarantee you're among the winners either. ,,But Al will be easier to use by then!"
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  • Yes. Obviously. But nobody is promising the opportunities would still be there when you finally showed up.
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  • We're watching the foundations of a two- tier society being laid while most people haven't even realized there's a race.
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  • My grandmother could afford to ignore a technological revolution that took place over 50 years You're betting your future. on having the same luxury
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  • amp1212 If you believe in the "strong singularity" -- eg an RSI powered leap to superintelligence, with its increases in capability increasing by the day... then what you or I know of Al today won't matter.
    via bigdickzillionaire
  • The poet who writes in longhand and never uses a computer and Andrej Karpathy would be similarly placed with respect to post-singularity Al. If you actually believe in a "strong singularity" -- then the time you've spent learning all sorts of skills in the "pre- singularity" era are akin to,
    via bigdickzillionaire
  • say, someone who knows how to rig the sails for a ship of the line from 1806, its a historical curiosity, but not how we do it now. I personally don't believe in the strong singularity, rather the arrival of powerful technology in lumps, filled with problems and always
    via bigdickzillionaire
  • depending on the intervention of skilled humans... but if you do thing that RSI with strong singularity happens, then for that scenario, the value of of the Al knowledge in the brains of men goes to zero very quickly.
    via bigdickzillionaire
  • Mus_Rattus The amount of time between "I know how to use Al and you don't, therefore I have an insurmountable advantage" and "Al no longer needs me to prompt it, therefore we're all in the same boat" may be shorter than you think...
    via bigdickzillionaire
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